A Gallup Korea poll published last Wednesday showed Moon with 38 per cent support in a field of 13 candidates, with centrist Ahn Cheol-soo his nearest challenger on 20 per cent.
The campaign focused largely on the economy, with North Korea less prominent, but after a decade of conservative rule a Moon victory could mean a sea change in Seoul's approach towards both Pyongyang and key ally Washington.
Mr Moon, who favours engagement with North Korea, will immediately be thrust into a tense stand-off between the U.S. and Pyongyang over dictator Kim Jong-un's ambitions to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM] capable of striking America with a nuclear warhead.
He will be officially sworn in as South Korea's new president after the election commission finishes the vote count and declares the victor on Wednesday morning.
Voting is under way in South Korea's presidential election to pick a successor to Park Geun-hye, who was ousted and indicted for corruption.
Moon served as chief of staff to Roh Moon-hyun, the liberal president who governed between 2003 and 2008 and who inherited the sunshine policy of liberal predecessor Kim Dae-jung.
The White House congratulated Moon on his election win, saying it looked forward to working with him to strengthen the longstanding US-South Korea alliance.
Moon said his victory, if confirmed, would underscore the South Korean people's "desperate wish" for a change in government.
With South Korea's presidential election just one day away, North Korea on Monday called for an end to the history of inter-Korean confrontation.
Frustration over widening inequality in wealth and opportunities fuelled anger over Park's scandal, which exposed the cosy and corrupt ties between regulators and powerful family-oriented conglomerates, known as chaebols, that have endured for decades.
Exit polls predict he'll end up with over 41 percent.
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Hong was quick to accept defeat.
But a South Korea under Moon will finally bring some stability to politics in Seoul, which have been roiled for months by corruption and scandal.
That would also represent something of a break with the United States' stance of ramping up pressure on North Korea for its weapons tests.
If the actual votes aren't wildly different, Moon will begin his single five-year term immediately without the normal transition period because of Park's impeachment.
Now in prison awaiting trial, Park had been embroiled in scandals involving alleged corruption and trading in influence through a close friend.
As a former pro-democracy student activist, Mr Moon was jailed for months in the 1970s while protesting against the senior Park.
64-year-old Moon, who has called for negotiations to defuse tensions over North Korea, is believed to favor more independence in ties with Washington. (Note: These numbers are shifting slightly as the returns come in.) You'll note that the votes for the top two center and center right candidates alone bested Moon Jae-in's winning tally.
He has also promised to review the previous administration's decision to host an American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system, which has engendered criticism from North Koreans, who see it as an antagonistic move by the US, and from local residents, who were angered by President Donald Trump's statement that Seoul should pay for the system.
The election is being closely watched overseas at a time of high tension with North Korea, which is believed to be preparing for a sixth nuclear test and has vowed to test an intercontinental missile.
If Trump reiterates his demands that South Korea pay for THAAD, it could create a sore spot in relations.
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