In its initial outlook, issued at the beginning of the season, NOAA had forecast a high likelihood of 11-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. "We're now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form", said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in a news release.
According to NOAA, 2017 could end up being an extremely active one for the Atlantic - and has the chance to be the most active since 2010.
Other factors include warmer than average waters in the Atlantic within the region of typical tropical development, as well as forecast models predicting more storms to develop.
This means there is now the chance of a total of 14-19 named storms with 2-5 major hurricanes possible. Forecasters are also predicting 2-5 major hurricanes, which is an increase from May's report of 2-4 major hurricanes.
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While there had been speculation that a decades-long warming and cooling ocean pattern that can drive periods of active seasons was begin to fade, Bell said this season suggests it's not ending. That's double the number of storms that normally form by early August and almost half during an average six-month season.
And there was Tropical Storm Emily, which formed quickly in July and washed ashore in central Florida.
The Atlantic basin has seen six named storms this year, two of which made landfall in the United States. As the peak of hurricane season approaches, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place.
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