The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its projections for the Portuguese economy in 2017, and now expects growth of 1.7% this year, compared to a previous projection of 1.1%, but slightly below the government forecast.
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook data on Tuesday. "Global growth is projected to increase from an estimated 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018".
The IMF expected the advanced economies to grow by 2 percent this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than its forecast in January.
In the report, economists say there are many "downside risks" including political pressure to restrict trade, which they argue will hurt rather than help growth.
IMF's publication World Economic Outlook (WEO) that conducts surveys recently revised India's growth forecast for the financial year 2017 at 6.8 per cent. They also expect President Donald Trump to deliver tax cuts and infrastructure spending that could help boost U.S. economic growth.
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The report cited China's "policy preference for maintaining relatively high GDP growth", but warned of the consequences of unbalanced growth in the medium term. "This is the bedrock of the Philippine Development Plan towards an economy that continues to grow and in an inclusive fashion", he said on Tuesday. It did not specifically mention the Trump administration's "America First" trade agenda aimed at reducing US trade deficits and turning away more imports.
The IMF also said that risks to the global outlook also could come from a faster-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes in the United States, which could trigger a sharp rise in the dollar and disruptive capital outflows from emerging markets.
Aside from such policy uncertainty, Obstfeld expressed concern about rising waves of protectionism and growing skepticism of global economic integration, in apparent references to Trump's "America First" agenda and Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
The worry for India is the fact that the International Monetary Fund has cut its global trade growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage point for 2018 (from its January forecast) to 3.9 per cent. India's merchandise exports started improving in recent months after struggling since December 2014. In line with stronger-than-expected momentum in the second half of 2016, the forecast envisages a stronger rebound in advanced economies.
Saudi Arabia, the region's largest economy, is expected to growth 0.4% this year and 1.3% the next, against 1.4% in 2016.
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