McKelvey: Is Kansas election a bellwether?

Close results in the special House election to replace former Kansas Republican representative and current Central Intelligence Agency director Mike Pompeo should serve as "a warning sign" to the GOP, Sen. Ted Cruz, in the flesh, at a rally for Mr. Estes.

The election was held to fill the House seat vacated by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, a former three-term representative of Kansas' 4th district.

So what does it mean?

Ryan has been a cash machine for the National Republican Congressional Committee, having recently kicked in $16.4 million to help GOP candidates across the country.

Estes was elected by a smaller margin than many Republicans would have liked, however. Republicans are defending four GOP-leaning seats - the Kansas seat plus Georgia, Montana and SC - while Democrats are protecting a seat in a liberal California district. This was just one special election, and upcoming special elections in Georgia and Montana will show if Kansas is part of a trend.

In a statement late Tuesday, the organization said the 4th District is "ruby red and should never have been on the table" as competitive. "Ossoff wins and suddenly every Republican in a swing district is going to be nervous and they will demonstrate their independence". The DCCC congratulated Thompson for forcing Republicans to spend money in order to hold the seat. Ossoff handled all of the questions about national politics really well, but what jumps out at observers is that Democrats are recruiting younger candidates who are focused on grassroots party building.

Ossoff told students at Georgia Tech on Thursday that his internal polling and early voting numbers show the race still give him an opening to win the 18-candidate race outright on Tuesday and avoid a head-to-head matchup against a Republican on June 20.

S.C. Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison tweeted "we can #FlipSC5 with your support" and called on the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to support the Democratic nominee in the race, support that was largely absent in Kansas. Democrats are trying to figure out how to reconnect with voters in the heartland. But he came within 7 points in one of the most Republican districts in the nation. In 2007 and 2008, Democrats won GOP seats in Illinois, Louisiana, and MS, a clear sign of a demoralized Republican base in the second term of George W. Bush. As a result, they're energized - they will crawl over broken glass. In addition many Kansans have been unhappy with Gov Sam Brownback, a Republican, and his drastic cuts in education spending and social services.

That support proved invaluable: Just days before the election, his campaign spokesman said they received financial support from more than 8,500 people.

This year, Democrats are making no pretense of running moderates. The next year they lost ancestrally Democratic seats in Oklahoma and Kentucky, an indication that they were in danger of losing the House that November (which they did).

There are dangers in reading too much into the Kansas race.