German local vote a blow to Schulz's Social Democrats

On paper, this motley assortment of parties including the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Greens, seems weird - two center-right pro-business parties, and one left-leaning environmentally-focused one.

Supporters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) react after the first forecast of the regional elections in the German federal state in the House of State Parliament of Schleswig-Holstein in Kiel, Germany, 07 May 2017.

Beyond its significance as the last-but-one regional election before September, there are plenty of local peculiarities in today's vote.

Exit polls broadcast by ARD television showed Merkel's Christian Democratic Union leading with 33 percent and the Social Democrats, or SPD, trailing with 26 percent in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.

Conversely, the coalition between the SPD and Greens is Germany's standard center-left government, calling on support from both traditional social democratic voters and progressive, metropolitan liberals.

Daniel Guenther, the CDU candidate in the strongly Protestant state, said that after such a crushing defeat, the SPD can not be part of any future coalition because it would send the wrong signal to voters.

Below are the most common options, with a few caveats regarding coalition-willingness: the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now seen as a pariah for all the other parties, both at state and national level, while the other parties have so far only found the stomach to accommodate the socialist Left party in some states.

The Social Democrats had governed the region of 2.8 million people since 2012 in coalition with the Greens and the small SSW party of the region's Danish majority. Or they could form a left-right coalition with the Social Democrats.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party picked up 5.9 percent of the vote, meaning it will enter the state's legislature for the first time as it has passed the five percent threshold. Only one polling company has the SPD above 30 per cent, a sign that the surge in support that followed Mr Schulz's elevation to the party leadership in January has finally faded.

The result is disappointing for the SPD, whose popular new leader Martin Schulz - the former head of the European Union parliament - was expected to rally the party in the run-up to the September 24 general elections.

The left-leaning party has its work cut out.

With polls in North Rhine-Westphalia showing the race between CDU and SPD too close to call, pressure on the Social Democrats to avoid another defeat will grow.

The vote was seen as an important litmus test for Germany's federal elections in September, with Chancellor Merkel seeking a fourth term in office. CDU top candidate Daniel Guenther is now tasked with the formation of a government.

"That will be a different game altogether", she said of NRW. Then again, one traffic light was successfully turned on a year ago in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate.

"In both states, the SPD is already in power, so these elections are theirs to lose", Manfred Guellner, head of the Berlin-based pollsters Forsa, said in an interview.