Hinds says that production bump won't necessarily translate into inventory builds, but could push crude oil prices down to $65 per barrel crude by the end of 2019.
While sanctions under the previous Barack Obama administration restricted Iran's export capacity to one million barrels per day, the Trump administration wanted to hurt Tehran further by reducing exports to zero, a strategy that didn't work due to limited spare capacity in the global oil markets.
Iran's oil exports could halve by the middle of next year from their October level as the United States tightens the noose on Tehran through sanctions that will now focus on restricting crude revenue rather than imports by energy-hungry countries, analysts said.
U.S West Texas Intermediate crude prices were down almost 1 percent to roughly $61 per barrel in midday trading, down about 20 percent from record prices of $76.41 a barrel in early October, and fell as low as $60.83.
In another counter-measure made possible by state control of the oil sector, Iranian authorities are using special exchange centers to sell dollars at cheaper rates to importers of basic foods, medicine and other essential goods.
The JTC prepares regular reports on the oil market which inform the group's decisions.
Brent crude fell $1.33, or 1.9 percent, to $70.74 a barrel at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The U.S. State Department says it is exempting Iran's big port project in Chabahar from sanctions in recognition of its importance to landlocked Afghanistan.
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Saudi Arabia said the move would translate into an output rise of around 1 million bpd.
"Oil revenues might decline but (they) will still be enough to run the country", said an official involved in Iran's global commerce.
TransCanada Corp.'s long-troubled Keystone XL oil pipeline project hit another roadblock as a U.S. District Court in Montana ruled it must wait for a further environmental review.
US sanctions had been lifted under the auspices of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or, more simply, the Iran nuclear deal) negotiated by the Obama administration along with China, France, Russia, the U.K., Germany, and the European Union.
Those eight countries are Iran's biggest customers and account for around three-quarters of the Islamic Republic's oil exports. At present, Iran is the third largest supplier of oil to India.
Pipelines are coming online in the Permian and Cushing is getting filled up again, which pressures oil prices to the downside, Cramer said. -China trade war will damp fuel demand as supply grows from multiple directions.
Or will the United States use to time to ensure that it can enforce the sanctions when the 180 days expire, while not causing oil prices to spike? Including condensate, an ultra-light form of crude, shipments peaked around 3 million bpd in mid-2018, according to trade data in Refinitiv Eikon.