India's Q4FY18 GDP growth beats estimates, rises to 7.7 per cent

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It said: "The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at Rs 128.64 lakh crore during 2017-18, as against the previous year's estimate of Rs 120.52 lakh crore".

While that makes it one of the fastest-expanding major economies, the sustainability of the recovery is now in question as the nation battles a currency slump and faster inflation brought about by surging oil prices.

He said he did not see any correlation between oil prices and GDP growth and the fiscal deficit would remain as per the targets. GVA growth for Q4 FY18 also picked up to 7.6%YoY, helped by manufacturing and construction sectors growth. In 2019-20, it has projected the growth rate to be higher at 7.5 per cent.

India's GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent, recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017-2018, shows that the country's economy was on an uptrend, said president of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) Rashesh Shah on Friday.

Encouraged by the quarterly surge, the government on Thursday said it is keeping its forecast of GDP growth of 7.5 per cent for fiscal year 2018-19 unchanged.

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The Indian economy grew by 7.7 per cent, in January-March 2018, according to data from the Central Statistics Office.

With growth climbing consistently over the last three quarters of 2017-18, it is pretty clear that the economy has gathered steam, having set aside the impact of demonetisation and introduction of GST. "So, we at this moment feel that we should retain (the growth estimate)", economic affairs secretary Subhash Chandra Garg told reporters after the GDP numbers were released.

"(It) seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation", said Tushar Arora, a senior economist at HDFC Bank. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meet is scheduled on June 4 and 5. This registered a growth of more than 14% YoY in Q4FY18, compared to negative growth YOY in the corresponding quarter a year back (Q4FY17).

DOWNSIDE RISKS: The recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014.

However, the downward revisions for the earlier quarters of FY2018 have prevented the full year growth estimates from exceeding our forecasts. Higher cost of financing is also likely to slow investment and consumption spending across government, households and firms, said Abhishek Gupta, of Bloomberg Economics. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018/19.

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