The Paris-based group said it cut its demand outlook for next year by 190,000 barrels a day, and global production could vault above demand by 600,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2018, and by 200,000 barrels a day in the second quarter.
The less-than-bullish forecast for Canadian oil and gas, means the IEA has cut the country's investment spend in the country to US$1.08 trillion in 2040 (from US$1.68 trillion in its forecast last year) - part of a global cut in investment projections.
"While other major companies continue to maintain a presence in oil sands operations, it remains an open question whether the exit of these companies will impact prospects for oil sands development over the longer term", the IEA said.
Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US. Though solar power is set to become the cheapest source of new electricity generation and the boom years for coal are over, oil and gas will continue to meet the bulk of the world's energy needs, the IEA said.
The U.S. government said on Monday U.S. shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd. However, this is expected to cut only 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about two per cent, off global oil demand by that time.
First, the world's energy demand will rise the equivalent of China and India's current energy consumption over the next three decades - but Canada has limited direct conduits to connect those energy-hungry markets to its store of the world's third-largest oil reserves.
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"Next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.
Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles. Global energy demand is 30 per cent higher by 2040 - but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements.
Besides oil barrel prices, the estimate factors in the milder temperatures as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.
Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
Indeed, the IEA also suggests that demand for oil will remain supported by lower prices, going forward.