However, a survey by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for national broadcaster ZDF published on Thursday put support for the CDU at 32 percent in Schleswig-Holstein, ahead of the SPD on 29 percent.
Germany's largest state by population will be seen as the most important indicator as to which way the national vote may go when the region votes on the 14 May.
(Christian Charisius/dpa via AP).
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has won 33.3 percent of the vote in the northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein, up from 30.8 in the previous state election in 2012, according to the early results broadcasted by the public television ARD.
One key unknown is whether the Germany-wide collapse in support for anti-euro, anti-Islam party Alternative for Germany (AfD) after a vicious internal falling-out between moderates and hardliners will be reflected in upcoming state election results. The SPD won 26.2 percent, down from 30.4 percent.
The Social Democrats would in theory have enough seats in a coalition with the Free Democrats and the Greens.
BERLIN, May 5 With the novelty value of their new leader fading, Germany's Social Democrats need to retain power in regional elections on Sunday and a week later if they are to pose a serious threat to Chancellor Angela Merkel in September's national vote.
That would leave a power-sharing "grand coalition" between the two big parties as the sole governing option for the rivals - a scenario that could also arise again at the federal level after the September election.
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"I am disappointed", said the Social Democrats' national leader, Martin Schulz, whose party has now suffered two regional election defeats to Merkel's conservatives this year.
Preliminary estimates indicated the Christian Democrats could form a 42-seat majority in the region's 69-seat parliament with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.
The Social Democrats surged in national polls after Schulz, a former European Parliament president, was nominated as Merkel's challenger in January, but the party's ratings have since sagged.
Regardless of the outcome of local coalition talks, the result dampened the mood among Social Democrats and was good news for Ms Merkel.
The state election commissioner in Schleswig-Holstein estimated that by 11 a.m. (0900 GMT), 21.55 percent of eligible voters had cast their vote, up from 17.7 percent at the same stage in the last regional vote in 2012.
In response to the results, the CDU's Secretary-General Peter Tauber congratulated his colleagues in Schleswig-Holstein, saying that "the voters have given Daniel Günther and the CDU a clear mandate to govern. what no one thought was possible just a few weeks ago has become reality".
The FDP's candidate Wolfgang Kubicki said Sunday's result showed the SPD would have to broaden its election platform if it wanted to topple Merkel in the federal election in September.
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